If you could invent something to fulfill an economist’s dream, it would look an awful lot like a prediction market. A world where every uncertain future can be priced, hedged and insured against? Kenneth Arrow and Gérard Debreu would approve. A market mechanism to co-ordinate the decentralised wisdom of crowds, ensuring the accuracy of such prices? Adam Smith and Friedrich Hayek sought just that.
If you could invent something to fulfill an economist’s dream, it would look an awful lot like a prediction market. A world where every uncertain future can be priced, hedged and insured against? Kenneth Arrow and Gérard Debreu would approve. A market mechanism to co-ordinate the decentralised wisdom of crowds, ensuring the accuracy of such prices? Adam Smith and Friedrich Hayek sought just that.
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